Welcome

Explore our 2024–2025 data-driven stock analysis of U.S. equities. This tool highlights operational efficiency, predicted growth, and market performance. We combine DEA efficiency and predictive modeling to identify stocks with high expected growth and lower risk. All data is informational only.

Introduction

This section presents a quantitative analysis of selected U.S. stocks based on operational efficiency, investment activity, and model-based price predictions. The author may own shares of some companies discussed in this analysis. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

DEA Efficiency Scores

Measures how efficiently a company turns resources into results. Higher scores indicate better efficiency.

We use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure how efficiently companies turn resources into results. This allows us to identify firms that consistently outperform peers and utilize capital, workforce, and investments most effectively.

In fact, the firms with the highest market capitalization also are the most efficient:

Note: DEA scores are based on historical and publicly available data and do not guarantee future performance.

Predictive Modeling

Predicts stock growth based on historical data and company metrics. The LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) regression helps select the most relevant features while preventing overfitting.

We create a predictive model using LASSO to estimate expected stock price growth, combining historical financial trends with operational metrics. We train this model on past years and use it to predict growth for the following year. These predictions are designed to study relationships between efficiency and stock performance.

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Efficiency scores are plotted against the log value of actual growth of stock prices in a year. The results show that price growth is correlated with efficiency and this effect is present in every sector. What is specifically noticeable is that larger DEA scores reduce growth variance, in other words, risk. Lowered variance also means that the model has higher predictive power for firms which have a high DEA and high market cap, since the error term variance is smaller.

Disclaimer: Model outputs are projections only and should not be considered recommendations. Actual stock prices may differ significantly.

All metrics are used for analytical purposes and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock.

Composite Ranking System

Firms are ranked based on model predictions and DEA efficiency scores. These two rankings are added to form a composite score, where a lower score indicates better overall performance. As a result, firms that score highly in the model but poorly in efficiency (and vice versa) may not appear in the top 10.

Selected companies are ranked using a scoring system that combines:

  1. Operational efficiency

  2. Relative valuation compared to predicted performance

This is a hybrid quantitative scoring system combining fundamental analysis (financial ratios), predictive modeling (Lasso regression), and DEA efficiency scoring.

Top Companies by Model Score

Disclaimer: The numbers below are model outputs and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock. All investments carry risk.

Note: The author may hold positions in some of the securities shown above.